Spotting Trends in Adventure Sports

An Introduction to Google Trends

OVERVIEW:

Google Trends is a powerful tool that provides users with an inside look at what terms are being searched for on Google’s popular search engine. Google has long been the world’s leading search engine, and according to Google, they receive nearly 50,000 searches every second or more than three billion searches every day. These staggering numbers provide a unique opportunity for Google to collect an unprecedented amount of data on what users are thinking about and are interested in. Because the searches represent the first-hand, true intent of a broad base of individual searchers, the data collected can be considered more authentic and comprehensive than traditional market research methods such surveys or focus groups. Additionally, the tool creates a historical record that continues in real-time to help identify trends. For this report, I chose to use Google Trends to explore the relevance of four action sports that have personal appeal to me: Windsurfing, Kitesurfing, Standup Paddleboarding (SUP), and Fat Bike riding.

METHODS:

To begin, I had to first identify the key terms that would best describe the subjects I was looking for. For example, the sport of Kitesurfing can also be referred to kite surfing, kiteboarding, kite sailing, etc. This is also the case with the other sports listed that also have various names. According to the support page on Google Trends, “No misspellings, spelling variations, synonyms, plural or singular versions of your terms are included”. To arrive at the selected terms for this exercise, I played around with various terms to try and determine the most popular. Next, I had to select a geographic region for where the Google searches originated. I selected the United States, but there are various options spanning from individual states to worldwide. Lastly, I selected the time range for the data of 2004–present, which is the most data that Google Trends will provide.

RESULTS:

The graph below shows the interest over time for the four terms mentioned above. As shown, the early years reveal that Windsurfing (blue) was at one time the most popular of the sports. The early years also show the emergence of Kitesurfing (red) which surpassed Windsurfing as the most popular sport during the summer of 2007, and would then peak in the summer of 2008. In the years that followed, Kitesurfing has consistently remained a more popular search term than Windsurfing. Both Windsurfing and Kitesurfing originally exhibited a rise in popularity during the summer months, however, both have experienced downward trend from years 2004-present and seasonal interest has flattened.

By comparison, Standup Paddleboarding (yellow) has seen a dramatic rise in popularity in the years 2008-present. The data shows strong seasonality for this search term as well, but it is important to note that even during winter months, interest in SUP has been higher than the year-round interest of all other sports since 2010. The graph also reveals that recent interest in SUP is nearly double that of Windsurfing or Kitesurfing in the early years of this range. To a lesser extent, the rise of Fat Bike (green) searches is also seen in the past 3-4 years. There is a slight winter trend for this term, however seasonal interest appears to be leveling off. It is important to note that Fat Bike interest is also now trending higher than both Windsurfing and Kitesurfing.

In addition to showing the overall interest in the search terms over time, Google Trends also breaks down search locations by state. The four maps below show popularity of the search terms using color shading – the darker the color, the more concentrated searches were in that area. It is important to understand that interest by state is measured as a percentage of the total searches in that state. More specific rankings can be seen when scrolling over each map when using the Google Trends site.

Google’s search data shows that our three watersports of Windsurfing, Kitesurfing, and SUP had the highest percentage of interest in Hawaii. On the contrary, the highest level of Fat Bike interest was in Alaska, with little or no interest in Hawaii. Higher levels of Windsurfing interest were shown in Oregon and Vermont, yet little or no interest in North Dakota or West Virginia. Kitesurfing interest was more broadly distributed with higher levels in Florida and Oregon. SUP was by far the most evenly distributed search term among the sports with a considerable percentage of searches from all 50 states, and higher interest levels in Florida, Montana, and Maine. The final map below combines all four search terms to show that SUP was clearly the most popular searched term in all states but Alaska from years 2004-present.

DISCUSSION:

There are many possible explanations for the trends shown in the Google Trends graph above, here are a few:

· Windsurfing:

o 40+ year old sport, considered outdated

o Surplus of used equipment on Craigslist, etc. – low demand for new equipment

o Being replaced by newer, more attractive sports like kitesurfing and SUP

o Equipment is too big, not easily purchased online or shipped

o Technically and physically challenging, requires years of practice to master

o Core group still interested, but new growth is slow

· Kitesurfing:

o Newer sport, appealing to many new entrants

o Stealing market share from windsurfing

o Increased exposure in popular media - TV commercials, Richard Branson, presidential candidate Senator John Kerry, etc.

o High demand for new equipment

o Equipment is smaller and more manageable, easily purchased online and shipped

o Less physically challenging and easier and quicker to master than windsurfing

o Still a niche sport and not mainstream, may have reached market saturation

· SUP:

o Newer sport, appealing to wide demographic

o Gear is simple: board and paddle

o Can be used in many locations – lakes, oceans, rivers

o Many uses: surfing, touring, racing, yoga, fishing, etc.

o Not technical, lowest barrier to entry of the watersports

o Highly visible on car tops, self-promoting

o Luxury goods interest increases with improving national economy

· Fat Bikes:

o Newer sport, appealing to enthusiasts

o Gear is expensive and bulky

o Unconventional design, still a niche product

o May be considered only a cold-weather sport

o Many other competing bike products on market: various mountain bikes, commuter bikes, single speed/fixed gears, performance race bikes

o Luxury goods interest increases with improving national economy

Geographic results must also be considered carefully. For example, it may not be surprising that searches for the three watersports were most popular in Hawaii – it’s an island state with favorable weather year-round, plus all three sports were originated there. What is more surprising is that the #3 ranked state for interest in Windsurfing is Vermont – a state with no coastline and only one sizeable lake. One possible explanation for this is that Google Trends ranks search term interest as a percentage of total searches in that area. Since Vermont has a relatively small population, this could mean that the total quantity of searches is lower than other states (e.g. Massachusetts), yet a small but active group of windsurfing enthusiasts is skewing the results. In other words, the level of interest shown in Google Trends does not necessarily indicate the size of the potential market. A retailer of windsurfing equipment would most likely perform better in Massachusetts than in Vermont.

In closing, Google Trends provides a simple and clear snapshot of popular search terms which can then be used to spot trends in consumer attitudes, preferences, and behaviors. While Google’s data and presentation is impressive, careful analysis and additional research may be necessary to more accurately identify trends and to support forecasting. Ambiguities around search term wording may lead to bias, and geographic data may also be misleading at first glance.